Early Warning Intelligence

Foresight is power.

htm-monitor is an unsupervised early-warning monitor for critical systems, built to stay quiet until something matters. Its power grid results are scored in the open on GridShedWatch, a benchmark of every US load shed since 2020, next to four other methods and the operators’ own public notices.

8
Every US load shed for lack of supply since 2020, on 8 grids, chosen by a rule rather than by hand
6 of 8
Load sheds with a watch in the 7 days before, on the GridShedWatch benchmark (4 of the 5 held-out; mean of 5 seeds)
2.3 days
Median watch lead time. The operators’ public notices, where there were any (4 of 8 events): 20 hours
~1 / month
Watches per grid; warnings 1 to 2 a year. One model and one rule for every grid, no labels, no retraining
Case Studies

Power grid monitoring, scored in the open.

Scored on GridShedWatch, an open benchmark: six and a half years of public hourly data for each grid, the same rules and alert budget for every method, every alert next to what the grid operator announced at the time, and the limits stated. The engine itself takes any continuous numeric signal.

See it on your data.

Send a 90-day telemetry sample and one past event you'd like scored. Preview audit within a week.

Use Cases

Scored Against
Real Grid Emergencies

Every US load shed for lack of supply since 2020, replayed from public data on the open GridShedWatch benchmark, scored next to four other methods, and shown next to what the operators announced.

Power Grid Monitoring

Early warning of grid emergencies from hourly demand and generation data

Case studies
  • Events chosen by a rule. Every operator-ordered load shed caused by insufficient supply, at least 250 MW, since 2020: 8 events on 8 grids (ERCOT, CAISO, TVA, SPP, MISO, Duke Energy Carolinas, Duke Energy Progress, LG&E-KU).
  • Two levels, scored like the weather service. A watch (“something unusual is building”, about 12 a year per grid) and a warning (“this grid is in trouble now”, 2 a year), scored on events caught, lead time and false alarms, with the same alert budget for every method.
  • Results. A watch before 6 of 8 load sheds, typically 2.3 days ahead, and a warning for 5.6 of 8 (means over 5 seeds). Three events shaped the shared rules; the other five were held out: 4 of 5 watched.
  • Next to other methods. Within about one event of the best at both levels, and well above chance, but not the leader at either: an LSTM forecaster catches slightly more watches with hours rather than days of lead, and a seasonal z-score catches more warnings.
  • Limits stated. The 2020 California heat wave is mostly missed, SPP is caught on only 2 of 5 seeds, and most Elliott notice is hours rather than days.
htm-monitor’s entry: results, timelines next to the operators’ own notices, and limits →

GridShedWatch is a separate, method-neutral benchmark: the events, data, shared rules and scoring, with an operator-style rule, a seasonal z-score, an LSTM forecaster, Chronos-Bolt and htm-monitor as reference methods. Anyone can score their own method on it.

GridShedWatch: the full leaderboard and how to add a method →
Technology

Sequence Learning,
Not Thresholds

The engine is Hierarchical Temporal Memory — a biologically-inspired sequence-learning algorithm extended with a grouped-consensus decision layer.

Online Temporal Learning

Each signal model learns its temporal patterns continuously and adapts to drift without a retraining cycle. No static limits on the raw signal values. No supervised labels.

Grouped Consensus

An alert needs two different kinds of evidence: demand and generation running abnormal, and the forecast or the supply-demand balance breaking down. A watch needs them within a few hours of each other; a warning allows them within the same day but must hold for 12 hours. The consensus layer keeps single-signal noise from becoming an alarm.

Fully Auditable

Every alert is traceable to specific signal anomalies at specific timesteps. Per-model, per-group visibility lets operators understand exactly what triggered and why.

Lightweight Deployment

Runs single-process in Python on a CPU. Scoring needs no external services, so it can run on a small VPS or inside an air-gapped VM.

Architecture

Signal Flow

Raw Telemetry
Any numeric time series
→
Per-Signal HTM
Sequence learning
→
Group Consensus
Cross-signal agreement
→
System Alert
Email today, other routes by integration
  • Shared across all eight grids: the HTM model parameters, the encoder shape, a one-week warm-up, the same five signals (demand, generation and demand-minus-generation as departures from the same hour over the previous four weeks; forecast error; demand minus generation), and one watch rule and one warning rule.
  • Set by rule, not by hand: each encoder’s value range is the 0.1st–99.9th percentile of that grid’s 2019 data, the year before every run starts, and how long an alert must persist is chosen from an alert budget using no event labels.
  • Set per grid: nothing. The method, every rule change and its date are in docs/event_selection.md.
Mission

Provide rare and useful warnings
to prevent losses.

Most anomaly detection systems generate noise. htm-monitor is built for the opposite: say nothing until something genuinely matters, then say it early enough to act. Foresight is power.

We believe the same unsupervised temporal learning engine can serve any system that produces continuous numeric data: learn what normal looks like, and flag when reality departs from it. That is a design goal, not yet a result. The scored case studies on this site are power grids.

Principles

What We Believe

Silence Is a Feature

A system that cries wolf loses trust. htm-monitor is designed for rare, high-confidence alerts — not dashboard noise.

Unsupervised by Default

No labeled training data required. The system learns from the structure of normal operations and flags departures automatically.

Transparency Over Blackbox

Every alert is fully auditable, traceable to specific signals and timesteps. Operators can see exactly what the system sees.

Domain Agnostic by Design

The engine takes any continuous numeric time series and makes no grid-specific assumptions. Published results cover only what has been scored.

About

Built by DataGrip LLC

htm-monitor is developed and operated by DataGrip LLC. We're focused on making unsupervised temporal anomaly detection practical and accessible for critical infrastructure operators.

Get In Touch

See it on your data.

Whether you want a free technical preview, a paid pilot, or just want to learn more — we'd love to hear from you.

Technical Preview — Free

Send a 90-day telemetry sample and one past event you'd like scored. You get a preview audit within a week: lead/lag timing, false-positive rate, per-signal analysis. No commitment.

Paid Pilot — $2,500

Full historical replay against your event catalog, with a written per-event audit. The fee credits in full against your first subscription month.

Send a Message

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HTM-Monitor
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All times are UTC. The current service delivers alerts by email; other routes are integration work.
Signal Traces
Group Warmth
⚠ Learning period — model is warming up, alerts suppressed
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